A Flatter Curve

A flat re-open for TYH2, last dealing +0-00+ at 126-15+. A quick reminder that cash Tsys will not open until London hours, owing to the observance of a Japanese holiday.

• Tuesday’s early risk-off impulse, stemming from Russia’s recognition of the LPR & DPR separatist regions in Ukraine, coupled with the official announcement of a Russian “peacekeeping” mission in the separatist states, faded as we moved through Tuesday trade. The lack of hardline western sanctions on Russia (at least for now) seemingly allowed markets to breathe a sigh of relief.
• The cash Tsy curve bear flattened on Tuesday, with 2s running ~8.5bp cheaper on the day, while 30s were little changed come the bell. Some of the Fed rate hike premium returned to the market, which aided the cheapening in the front end of the curve, allowing the 2-/10-Year yield spread to move to fresh cycle lows.
• 2-Year Tsy supply stopped through WI by 0.6bp, with the cover ratio moderating a touch vs. the prev. auction, but that metric remained above the recent auction averages. Dealer takedown slid to the lowest level on record (for a 2-Year auction).
• Fedspeak from Bostic (’24 voter) failed to add anything in the way of new information.
• The latest RBNZ monetary policy decision headlines the regional docket in Asia-Pac hours. Fedspeak from Daly & 5-Year Tsy supply headline the NY docket on Wednesday.