AUD/USD Falters On Commodity Plunge

The AUD sell-off post the RBA continued after yesterday’s close, we dipped towards 0.6760, which was the low from late last week, before sentiment stabilized. We pushed back toward 0.6800, opening around this level this morning.

• The USD surged overnight, particularly against the EU currencies, as EU recession fears intensified. EU yields plunged, while EUR/USD dropped sub 1.03.
• This weighed heavily on AUD performance, although the A$ generally outperformed the EU FX bloc.
• Commodity weakness was the other focus point as WTI fell below $100/bbl. Broader commodity sentiment appears to be catching with lower global equities. The Bloomberg aggregate commodity index fell by 4.50%. Base metals were off by 1.72%. Iron is back sub $109/tonne.
• The late rebound in US equities helped drag AUD higher. The VIX had a volatile session, spiking close to 30.0 at one stage before closing basically unchanged at 27.54.
• The data calendar is empty today.
• The technical picture remains negative for AUD. The downside target of 0.6759 remains in play, which is a 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb ' 21 bull cycle.