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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUD
AUD/USD tested overnight lows sub 0.6720 but we have pushed back towards nearly unchanged for the session, just above 0.6730.
- Most near term sentiment is centred on EUR/USD, which came close to break parity earlier.
- Broader risk appetite is also softer, with equity futures in the US down by around -0.50% for the S&P500. While all key regional Asia Pacific markets are tracking lower. AUD/JPY is off by 0.30% to 92.30.
- The AU-US 2yr spread is sub -50bps, so around fresh lows from a recent cyclical standpoint. The AU 2yr yield has lost 10bps today, to be back sub 2.46%.
- Earlier, the Westpac consumer sentiment continued to trend lower, falling a further 3% in July to 83.8. We are not too far away from 2020 lows and have dropped over 20% from late 2021 levels.
- The NAB business survey showed a more resilient picture, see the chart below, highlighting the wide divergence between the two sentiment measures. NAB business confidence did slide noticeably but conditions remain elevated at +13 (note the trough in 2020 was close to -40).
- The wage cost index also surged to 3.6 from 2.4, suggesting further wage growth ahead, see the second chart below.
Fig 1: Australia Consumer & Business Confidence Still Divergent
Source: Westpac/NAB/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Fig 2: NAB Wage Cost Index & AU Wages Growth
Source: NAB/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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