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AUD/JPY Can't Break Back Above 50 Day MA

AUD

AUD/USD couldn't get above 0.7000 post the Asia close, topping out above 0.6990 in NY. The pair sits at 0.6965 currently. The A$ did underperform broader USD weakness through the NY session though. AUD/EUR is back under 0.6800, versus a high of 0.6865, while AUD/JPY is down to 92.65, from highs above 93.80. This pair couldn't sustain a break above the 50 day MA, which comes in 93.75.

  • USD weakness against the majors overnight looked out-sized relative to the move in US yields, which were down, but only modestly. The US 2yr at 3.04%, off just over 2bps for the session.
  • Commodities were weaker, which likely weighed on AUD cross performance. Most notably in the oil space, with oil getting back to levels that prevailed prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Bloomberg energy commodity price index fell by 2.3%. Iron ore got sub $105/tonne before stabilizing somewhat. Base metals outperformed though.
  • US equities finished down a touch in an oscillating session for the S&P500, while the VIX edged down further to close sub 21.50%. AUD/JPY looks too low relative to the evolution of US equities, but the disconnect has been evident for a number of sessions now.
  • The focus today will be on the RBA quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy, although Tuesday's RBA statement already gave away some of the forecast updates around inflation and growth. So, it remains to be seen if this is a market mover.
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AUD/USD couldn't get above 0.7000 post the Asia close, topping out above 0.6990 in NY. The pair sits at 0.6965 currently. The A$ did underperform broader USD weakness through the NY session though. AUD/EUR is back under 0.6800, versus a high of 0.6865, while AUD/JPY is down to 92.65, from highs above 93.80. This pair couldn't sustain a break above the 50 day MA, which comes in 93.75.

  • USD weakness against the majors overnight looked out-sized relative to the move in US yields, which were down, but only modestly. The US 2yr at 3.04%, off just over 2bps for the session.
  • Commodities were weaker, which likely weighed on AUD cross performance. Most notably in the oil space, with oil getting back to levels that prevailed prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Bloomberg energy commodity price index fell by 2.3%. Iron ore got sub $105/tonne before stabilizing somewhat. Base metals outperformed though.
  • US equities finished down a touch in an oscillating session for the S&P500, while the VIX edged down further to close sub 21.50%. AUD/JPY looks too low relative to the evolution of US equities, but the disconnect has been evident for a number of sessions now.
  • The focus today will be on the RBA quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy, although Tuesday's RBA statement already gave away some of the forecast updates around inflation and growth. So, it remains to be seen if this is a market mover.