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Better Retail Sales Helps Stabilize Sentiment, But Risk-Off Flows Dominate

AUD

The better than expected retail sales print (+1.3% for July, versus +0.3% expected), has helped stabilize AUD/USD sentiment, but by and large, risk off flows continue to dominated. The pair was last at 0.6855/60, against earlier lows just under 0.6850. The DXY has broken to fresh cyclical highs above 109.30, which is helping drive broad based USD gains.

  • Outside of equity market weakness, in the commodity space, copper and iron ore are down as well, with only oil holding up resiliently at this stage. Copper is off 1.8% to $363 (CMX), while iron ore is down nearly 3% to under $103/tonne.
  • AU yields are seeing solid rises. the 2yr up by 10bps to over 3.03%, while the 10yr is to 3.66%. The AU-US 2yr spread though remains within recent ranges at -37bps.
  • The retail sales print should give the RBA confidence the economy remains on a reasonable footing, but this isn't lending too much support to the FX today.
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