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A Hawkish Tilt From Mester

FED
  • Cleveland Fed’s Mester with a more hawkish tilt now on Bloomberg TV after earlier Yahoo interview.
  • We don’t rule out 75bps hike forever and that whilst the pace we are going at right now seems about right (she earlier supported a further two 50bp hikes in Jun/Jul), we may have to speed up if inflation not easing.
  • 2Y Tsy yields give back almost half of the 3bp initial snap reaction higher but are still +2.5bps on the day now at 2.62%, whilst near-term Fed Funds futures get a boost with a cumulative 100bps priced for June and July again having dipped under yesterday NY am having been dragged higher with various FOMC members.
  • *MESTER: DON'T EXPECT INFLATION TO MOVE TO 2% BY END '22 OR '23 – bbg
  • *MESTER: WANT TO SEE EVIDENCE THAT INFLATION IS SLOWING – bbg
  • *MESTER: OPTIMISTIC THERE ARE GOOD SCENARIOS, BUT WILL BE BUMPY - bbg
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