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A Large Beat For ECI Along With Net Upward Revisions To Wage Components

US DATA
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  • The Employment Cost Index was notably stronger than expected in Q1 at 1.17% non-annualized (cons 1.0%).
  • Prior revisions were offsetting, with a strong Q4 (0.93 vs 0.87) vs a weaker Q3 (1.01 vs 1.07).
  • It translates to a particularly strong 4.8% annualized, its fastest since 3Q22.
  • The wage & salaries component increased 4.5% annualized, its fastest since 1Q23. It follows a strongly upward revised 4.3% in Q4 (from 3.8) but is more mixed after that with 4.4 (from 4.9) in Q3 and 4.1 (from 3.9) in Q2.
  • There’s a similar story in the private sector, with the wages & salaries component rising 4.5% annualized (strongest since 1Q23) after an upward revised 4.2% (initial 3.7%) in Q4.
  • Broader macro considerations will have to wait until Thursday’s Q1 preliminary release for productivity. Strong productivity gains have offset labor costs in recent quarters but consensus sees productivity growth tailing off to 0.7% annualized in Q1.
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  • The Employment Cost Index was notably stronger than expected in Q1 at 1.17% non-annualized (cons 1.0%).
  • Prior revisions were offsetting, with a strong Q4 (0.93 vs 0.87) vs a weaker Q3 (1.01 vs 1.07).
  • It translates to a particularly strong 4.8% annualized, its fastest since 3Q22.
  • The wage & salaries component increased 4.5% annualized, its fastest since 1Q23. It follows a strongly upward revised 4.3% in Q4 (from 3.8) but is more mixed after that with 4.4 (from 4.9) in Q3 and 4.1 (from 3.9) in Q2.
  • There’s a similar story in the private sector, with the wages & salaries component rising 4.5% annualized (strongest since 1Q23) after an upward revised 4.2% (initial 3.7%) in Q4.
  • Broader macro considerations will have to wait until Thursday’s Q1 preliminary release for productivity. Strong productivity gains have offset labor costs in recent quarters but consensus sees productivity growth tailing off to 0.7% annualized in Q1.