A Little Softer, Bostic Only Looks For 1 '24 Cut

TYM4 continues to move away from session highs after Friday’s high held in early Asia trade.

• Contract -0-02 at 110-22. Early range 110-21 to 110-30, sub-average volume of ~206K.
• Cash Tsy yields 2-3 bp higher across the curve.
• Late on Friday Goldman Sachs lifted their Tsy yield forecasts on expectations for slower Fed easing. They now see 10-Year yields at 4.25% at year-end (previously 4.00%), before a move to 4.10% by end-2025 (previously 4.00%).
• Fed implied rates edge higher vs. late Friday levels, but the moves are very modest. ~20.5bp of cuts priced through June & ~81bp of cuts priced through year end.
• Today’s Fedspeak will come from Cook, Goolsbee & Bostic.
• Late Friday saw Bostic reveal that he now looks for 1 cut in ’24 (previously 2). The comments may be adding some pressure to Tsys given that Bostic was on the dovish side of the Fed spectrum until the last few months.
• NY hours will also see the release of new home sales data, as well as activity data from the Chicago & Dallas Feds.
• 2-Year Tsy supply is also due.