A Little Softer To Start, Supply & Final Services PMI Due

Gilts move lower in early trade, with core global FI markets on the defensive as U.S. & German benchmarks respect recent yield lows.

• Futures trade as low 97.35, with initial support seen at yesterday’s base (97.08).
• The recent run higher in the contract is considered corrective at this stage.
• Yields are ~3bp higher across the curve.
• SONIA futures are 0.25-2.5 lower through the blues coming under very modest pressure alongside gilts, although ranges remain tight and volumes light.
• BoE-dated OIS sees similar, modest moves, with ~35bp of cuts showing through year end.
• Local headline flow continues to focus on political matters, with the initial Sunak-Starmer televised debate revealing little new and the Tories still trailing by a very wide margin in the polls.
• Final services PMI data headlines the UK calendar today, which should leave focus on wider headline flow & spill over from U.S. data.
• On the supply front, GBP4.0bn of Mar-27 gilt supply is due.