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A Little Under 50bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced, Powell Eyed

STIR
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

SONIA futures are essentially unchanged, with Bunds off yesterday’s high and a little below levels seen at the time of the SONIA settlement window.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~15bp of cuts for Aug and ~47.5bp of easing through year end, little changed vs. levels seen at this time yesterday.
  • Little in the way of meaningful UK event risk scheduled for today, which will leave focus on wider macro matters, headlined by comments from Fed Chair Powell.
  • Further ahead, the hawkish wing of the BoE will appear again tomorrow, with Pill and Mann scheduled to speak. Chief economist Pill’s comments could be particularly important for markets given his position as one of, if not the, most hawkish internal MPC member.
  • A reminder that Pill has not spoken publicly since before the pre-election blackout, with markets moving in a dovish direction in the interim.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.054-14.7
Sep-244.977-22.3
Nov-244.826-37.4
Dec-244.724-47.6
Feb-254.585-61.5
Mar-254.491-70.9
May-254.367-83.3
Jun-254.280-92.0

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

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SONIA futures are essentially unchanged, with Bunds off yesterday’s high and a little below levels seen at the time of the SONIA settlement window.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~15bp of cuts for Aug and ~47.5bp of easing through year end, little changed vs. levels seen at this time yesterday.
  • Little in the way of meaningful UK event risk scheduled for today, which will leave focus on wider macro matters, headlined by comments from Fed Chair Powell.
  • Further ahead, the hawkish wing of the BoE will appear again tomorrow, with Pill and Mann scheduled to speak. Chief economist Pill’s comments could be particularly important for markets given his position as one of, if not the, most hawkish internal MPC member.
  • A reminder that Pill has not spoken publicly since before the pre-election blackout, with markets moving in a dovish direction in the interim.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.054-14.7
Sep-244.977-22.3
Nov-244.826-37.4
Dec-244.724-47.6
Feb-254.585-61.5
Mar-254.491-70.9
May-254.367-83.3
Jun-254.280-92.0

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.