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A Mixed Session Ending Modestly Richer Ahead Of US CPI (updated)

US TSYS

[updating prior bullet to account for a short, sharp rally in the longer end of the curve to drive an outright bull rather than twist steepening]


  • Treasuries have seen a volatile session, in part having lurched higher and then more than reversing on questionable Taiwan headlines from The Messenger early on.
  • Subsequent attention was then on the twin note auctions, with the 3Y progressing smoothly before the 10Y saw another tail following its recent trend along with soft internals.
  • A brief cheapening aside on the latter, the broad trend since then has been one of paring earlier losses, which have accelerated in latest trade for a still mild bull steepening on the day (2YY -2.3bps, 5YY -1.9bps, 10YY -0.4bps and 30YY -0.4bps) after a twist steepening for most of the session.
  • TYU3 shifts towards the higher end of the day's range at 113-17 (up 4+ ticks) as volumes start to pick up closer to recent averages in increased activity of late but still lagging at 1.13M ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report and the FOMC decision on Wed. It doesn’t trouble resistance at 114-06+ (Jun 6 high) whilst the key bear trigger at 112-29+ (May 26/30 lows) remains exposed.
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