A$ Outperforming, All Eyes On RBA Today

The Aussie outperformed the G10, except for NOK, on Monday. AUDUSD rose 1.5% and is now around 0.6786, highest since late February, after reaching a low of 0.6651 earlier. The USD index is 0.4% lower as US yields fell and the ISM disappointed.

• AUDUSD broke through resistance at the 50-day EMA which signals a stronger short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher opens 0.6824, the February 24 high. Key short-term support is at 0.6625, the March 24 low, and a break of this would signal a bearish reversal.
• Aussie is up 1.2% against the yen to 89.80 and 0.8% versus the kiwi to 1.0773. AUDEUR is up 0.9% to 0.6223 and AUDGBP +0.8% to 0.5464.
• Equity markets were generally higher on Monday with the S&P up 0.4%, the FTSE +0.5% but the Eurostoxx down 0.1%. VIX was down to 18.5%. Oil prices were over 6% higher following OPEC+’s decision to cut output from May. Brent is around $84.93/bbl. Copper fell 1% and iron ore is around $120/t.
• The RBA meets today and the decision is announced at 1430 AEST. Consensus expects rates to be unchanged at 3.6% but predictions are far from unanimous with many expecting a further 25bp hike. See MNI RBA Preview - April 2023 for more views.