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A perceived improvement in the "mood music"....>

KIWI
KIWI: A perceived improvement in the "mood music" surrounding U.S.-China trade
matters, linked to optimistic rhetoric from U.S. Pres Trump & U.S. Commerce Sec
Ross, buoyed NZD/USD overnight; more questionable signals from elsewhere were
shrugged. The rally was limited by the 100-DMA at $0.6465 but NZD/USD continues
to operate just shy of highs, last 33 pips higher on the day at $0.6460.
- NZ Tsy released its Monthly Economic Indicators report (available here:
http://tiny.cc/MEIOct19). They lowered their nominal neutral 90-day interest
rate to 3.0% from 3.75%. Elsewhere, PM Ardern confirmed that NZ & China have
reached an agreement on a long-awaited upgrade to their free trade deal.
- A clean break above the 100-DMA would shift focus to the $0.6500 mark. On the
downside, a throwback under the Friday's/Sep 12 peaks at $0.6457/51 would bring
into view $0.6400/6399, which limited losses on Oct 22/Sep 12.
- The NZ docket this week is headlined by the domestic labour market report, due
on Wednesday. There is a GDT auction scheduled for Tuesday, while REINZ house
sales may hit at any point this week. Also worth watching Chinese services/comp
Caixin PMIs & trade balance, due on Tuesday and Friday respectively.

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