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A Small Beat For Retail Sales Control Group In Otherwise Weak Report

US DATA
  • Retail sales -1.0% (cons -0.4%) in March in greater than expected continued payback after January’s 3.1% M/M surge (only very small net upward revision to Jan/Feb).
  • Sales ex auto & gas (-0.3% M/M) and control group sales see a small beat though, the latter falling -0.3% (cons -0.5%) after an unrevised +0.5% M/M - it's a small beat for a series that increased 2.4% M/M in Jan.
  • The control group sees an unchanged (nominal) 3-month trend at a strong 10.4% annualized.
  • The retail sales data have lately given a good indication of broader consumer spending, but with real consumer spending clearly lagging with 2% annualized as of Feb data.
  • Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee cites today’s data as showing a bit of the lag [from the Fed previously raising rates “a lot”].

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