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A Tale Of Two Sessions As USD Re-Firms With Equity Weakness

FOREX
  • The USD drift extended further in early Friday trade, pushing the likes of EUR/USD and GBP/USD back toward the week's best levels, before the trade consistently reversed through US hours. The greenback has been undeterred by a slightly lower than expected core PCE print and a softer MNI Chicago PMI headline including sharply lower prices paid and new orders subindices. It’s part of a broader intraday risk-off move, with equities sliding for the most part since the US cash open.
  • CAD is clearly the worst performer on the day owing to a confluence of factors including a subdued monthly GDP report, the intraday decline in equities and WTI giving up earlier gains. NOK on the other hand performed well despite softer oil, whilst NZD was the best performer in G10 as it benefited from the pullback for crude.
  • NZD/USD showed back above the 50-dma to touch 0.6049, but faltered on the approach to the 100-dma of 0.6082 and has since pared its gains to 0.5993.
  • The majority of sell-side month-end FX rebalancing models all pointed to USD buying into the month-end fix, so markets clearly remained wary of underlying USD demand across US hours.
  • Focus in the coming week turns to the RBA, NBP and RBI rate decisions. The release of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report remains unclear, with the government shutdown this weekend potentially delaying the release beyond the originally scheduled October 6th.
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