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Abrupt TRY Vol Prompts Modest Risk-Off in G10

FOREX
  • Price action in G10 as been relatively contained so far Monday, with most major pairs trading inside the Friday range. This isn't the case in emerging markets, however, with market focus switching to Turkey after the abrupt slide in TRY after the Turkish President took markets by surprise in removing the head of the central bank just days after a 200bps rate hike.
  • This prompted a slide of as much as 15% in TRY against the USD at the open. This weakness has moderated slightly, but USD/TRY remains higher by well over 6% at the NY crossover.
  • This volatility has prompted some risk aversion in G10, with JPY and USD outperforming at the expense of AUD, NOK and SEK.
  • Focus turns to the ECB's weekly PEPP release, in which markets watch for any increase in bond holdings as part of the bank's asset purchase programme. The release is due at 1445GMT/1045ET.
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index and existing home sales data cross, as well as speeches from Fed's Powell, Daly, Quarles & Bowman and ECB's Weidmann, Schnabel & de Cos.
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