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According to our preferred method for............>

US
US: According to our preferred method for estimating US implied policy rate
probabilities, a 25bps hike is now fully priced for the upcoming December
meeting. A slew of economic data published last week attest to the resilience of
the economy with the ISM Manufacturing print for November surprising to the
upside (59.3 vs 57.5 survey), while the Markit PMIs came out in line with
consensus and average hourly earnings for November held steady at 3.1% Y/Y. This
proved more than sufficient to counter a slightly weaker NFP number (which, in
any case, reflects a tightening labour market and reduced economic slack).
- While USD OIS pricing augurs for a December hike, longer-end rate expectations
remain under pressure as the market eyes the end of the tightening cycle. PINCH
now attributes a 55.4% probability of a second hike by the December 2019
meeting, having previously been positioned for a second full hike.
Please see: http://marketnews-m.objects.xtenit.com/MNI_PINCH_UPDATE.pdf 

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