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BONDS: ACGBs Trade Cheaper, Chalmers Announces New RBA Board Structure

BONDS
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Similar to NZGBs, Aussie bonds opened cheaper and have since traded in narrow ranges throughout the session. Focus was on China were they had a flurry of economic data, however there was little reaction across asset classes to the mixed data, notably Retail Sales coming in a 3% vs expectations of 5%.

  • Earlier, Chalmers announced the The RBA's new governance structure, effective from March 2025, introduces two boards: one for monetary policy and one for governance. The monetary policy board will include two new members, Professor Fry-McKibbin, a monetary policy expert, and former Bendigo Bank head Baker, alongside existing members Harper, Watkins, Ross, Hewson, and key officials like Governor Bullock. The governance board will feature Schwartz as deputy chair and new appointees including Westacott, Gilbert, Thodey, and Dave.
  • ACGBs have traded in narrow ranges today, yields are currently 1.9bps to 4.6bps cheaper. The 2yr is +1.9bps at 3.912% and trade about 12bps cheaper over the past three sessions, while the 10yr is +2.3bps at 4.309%, The 2s10s is +0.5bps at 38.260
  • ACGB futures are currently YM -2.6, VTA -2.0, XM -2.8
  • Swap curves have flattened, short-end is flat, while the belly to long end is trading -1 to 3bps
  • Bill strip is -1 to -2
  • RBA-date OIS pricing is little changed today for the Feb meeting, with 13bps of cuts price. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25bps cut for the April meeting, and 42bps of cut priced for May. Looking out to November 2025 the market is currently pricing in 73bps of cumulative cuts
  • Tomorrow we have Westpac Consumer Confidence, with little else on the calendar for the rest of the year.
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Similar to NZGBs, Aussie bonds opened cheaper and have since traded in narrow ranges throughout the session. Focus was on China were they had a flurry of economic data, however there was little reaction across asset classes to the mixed data, notably Retail Sales coming in a 3% vs expectations of 5%.

  • Earlier, Chalmers announced the The RBA's new governance structure, effective from March 2025, introduces two boards: one for monetary policy and one for governance. The monetary policy board will include two new members, Professor Fry-McKibbin, a monetary policy expert, and former Bendigo Bank head Baker, alongside existing members Harper, Watkins, Ross, Hewson, and key officials like Governor Bullock. The governance board will feature Schwartz as deputy chair and new appointees including Westacott, Gilbert, Thodey, and Dave.
  • ACGBs have traded in narrow ranges today, yields are currently 1.9bps to 4.6bps cheaper. The 2yr is +1.9bps at 3.912% and trade about 12bps cheaper over the past three sessions, while the 10yr is +2.3bps at 4.309%, The 2s10s is +0.5bps at 38.260
  • ACGB futures are currently YM -2.6, VTA -2.0, XM -2.8
  • Swap curves have flattened, short-end is flat, while the belly to long end is trading -1 to 3bps
  • Bill strip is -1 to -2
  • RBA-date OIS pricing is little changed today for the Feb meeting, with 13bps of cuts price. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25bps cut for the April meeting, and 42bps of cut priced for May. Looking out to November 2025 the market is currently pricing in 73bps of cumulative cuts
  • Tomorrow we have Westpac Consumer Confidence, with little else on the calendar for the rest of the year.