MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 26

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  • Looking at monthly activity data the majority of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the 3-month/3-month change to come in at -0.1% for the three months to January (up from -0.3% in the 3-months to December).
  • On a M/M basis for January analysts are generally split between +0.1%M/M, +0.2%M/M and +0.3%M/M (after -0.1%M/M in December).
  • The main driver of the positive M/M print is expected to be the index of services where analyst expectations are centred around +0.2%M/M for January, again partially due to a rebound from the soft -0.1%M/M print in December.
  • In terms of market reaction, this data is not as important as yesterday's labour market data or next week's inflation data and isn't really at the forefront of the decision making process for MPC members. However, a strong rebound following the soft December print may add to expectations that it could be prudent to wait to begin cutting rates (while another soft print may on the margin add to expectations a cut could be coming a little sooner).
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  • Looking at monthly activity data the majority of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the 3-month/3-month change to come in at -0.1% for the three months to January (up from -0.3% in the 3-months to December).
  • On a M/M basis for January analysts are generally split between +0.1%M/M, +0.2%M/M and +0.3%M/M (after -0.1%M/M in December).
  • The main driver of the positive M/M print is expected to be the index of services where analyst expectations are centred around +0.2%M/M for January, again partially due to a rebound from the soft -0.1%M/M print in December.
  • In terms of market reaction, this data is not as important as yesterday's labour market data or next week's inflation data and isn't really at the forefront of the decision making process for MPC members. However, a strong rebound following the soft December print may add to expectations that it could be prudent to wait to begin cutting rates (while another soft print may on the margin add to expectations a cut could be coming a little sooner).