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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PORTUGAL
The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) won a plurality in Portugal's 10 March general election, but now faces a difficult challenge in winning a confidence vote in the Assembly of the Republic having fallen well short of a majority. AD leader Luis Montenegro's options will be to rely on the support either of the incumbent centre-left Socialist Party (PS) or the right-wing CHEGA (Enough) in a confidence and supply agreement.
- With 99.01% of votes counted, of the 230 seats in the Assembly the AD (an alliance of three centre-right parties) won 79 seats, up two on the previous election in 2022. The PS is on 77 (down 43), while Chega is the big winner of the election with its seat total up to 48 from 12 previously.
- As the vote count continued through the night, Montenegro claimed that his party would not work or do a deal with CHEGA in order to take power. However, this stance could come under significant pressure in the days and weeks ahead. The right of his party is likely to pressure Montenegro to seek support from CHEGA in a confidence vote required to form a gov't, rather than relying on the PS.
- There remains the prospect of a period of political uncertainty as efforts are made to feel out parties on both sides of the political spectrum. An emergingwar of words between CHEGA leader Andre Ventura and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa risks further divisions.
Chart 1. Portuguese General Election Results (Partial), Seats
Source: Interior Ministry, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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