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Additional Analyst Views Following April CPI Data

CHILE
  • JP Morgan note that in sequential terms both headline and core CPI are not only showing persistence, but accelerating. Core CPI in particular was well above their estimate. The exchange rate played a role here, particularly in terms of gasoline prices, but underlying core services pressure is more relevant, in their view. The strong persistence of inflation is a factor BCCh should weigh when assessing the pace of easing as well as the terminal rate for the current cycle.
  • Meanwhile, Itaú note that April's inflation print reaffirms the challenges of inflation converging to the 3% target, amid significant supply shocks and indexation. They expect that further supply pressures stemming from likely electricity price increases will keep inflation elevated. However, recent CLP appreciation may provide some relief to tradable goods pressures. Itaú expects BCCh to slow the pace of rate cuts to 50bp this month and then 25bp, before pausing the cycle at 5.25% this year.
  • HSBC expect inflation to be better-behaved on a m/m basis ahead, but still hovering around the ceiling of the 2-4% target range for the remainder of 2024. They expect BCCh to slow the pace of rate cuts to 50bp in May, reaching 5.0% in September, before pausing the easing cycle. They expect BCCh to reassess its estimates for the neutral policy rate towards the end of 2024 and conclude that it is then close to that level.
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