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AUD: A$ Little Changed Post RBA, But Firmer On Crosses

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AUD/USD is holding near 0.6350 in latest dealings. We got to highs of 0.6368 post the RBA decision, as the central bank cut rates by 25bps as expected, but then then the accompanying statement was cautious around further cuts. Pre RBA levels, we were just under 0.6340. 

  • For AUD techs, not much has changed. The pair has cleared 0.6331, the Jan 24 high and a key short-term resistance. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and opens 0.6414, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies remain in a bear-mode position.
  • Broader USD sentiment is positive, which may be limiting AUD upside. The BBDXY index remains in positive territory, up close to 0.20%. The A$ is outperforming on crosses though, up to 1.1120 for the AUD/NZD cross (+0.35%). AUD/JPY is up around 0.25%, the pair last near 96.50/55.
  • AU-US 2yr swap spreads are little changed, last near -41bps. We ended Monday's session at -40bps. We are in from recent wides though of beyond -50bps from last week.
  • Options markets aren't expecting AUD fireworks in the near term. The implied overnight range in AUD/USD is 0.6306-0.6392, with a 81.4% probability. This is little changed from pre-RBA levels.
  • Coming up in a little over 30mins we have RBA Governor Bullock's press conference. 
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AUD/USD is holding near 0.6350 in latest dealings. We got to highs of 0.6368 post the RBA decision, as the central bank cut rates by 25bps as expected, but then then the accompanying statement was cautious around further cuts. Pre RBA levels, we were just under 0.6340. 

  • For AUD techs, not much has changed. The pair has cleared 0.6331, the Jan 24 high and a key short-term resistance. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and opens 0.6414, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies remain in a bear-mode position.
  • Broader USD sentiment is positive, which may be limiting AUD upside. The BBDXY index remains in positive territory, up close to 0.20%. The A$ is outperforming on crosses though, up to 1.1120 for the AUD/NZD cross (+0.35%). AUD/JPY is up around 0.25%, the pair last near 96.50/55.
  • AU-US 2yr swap spreads are little changed, last near -41bps. We ended Monday's session at -40bps. We are in from recent wides though of beyond -50bps from last week.
  • Options markets aren't expecting AUD fireworks in the near term. The implied overnight range in AUD/USD is 0.6306-0.6392, with a 81.4% probability. This is little changed from pre-RBA levels.
  • Coming up in a little over 30mins we have RBA Governor Bullock's press conference.