MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, January 9

MNI: BAVARIA DEC CPI 3.0% Y/Y (FLASH WAS 3.2%)

MNI: GERMANY NOV EXPORTS +2.1% M/M

MNI BOJ: 2 OUT OF 9 JAPAN REGIONS UP ECON VIEW FROM OCT

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY20.7 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1886 Thurs; -2.34% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE NOV RETAIL SALES +0.1% M/M, +1.2% Y/Y

MNI: GERMANY NRW DEC CPI +0.5% M/M, +2.5% Y/Y

MNI: GERMANY NOV IND PROD +1.5% M/M

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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FOREX: A$ Supported Despite Higher RBA Easing Odds, Steady Trends Elsewhere

FOREX
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Aggregate FX moves are very muted in the first part of Wednesday trade. The USD BBDXY index is little changed versus end Tuesday levels in NY, last near 1307. 

  • AUD/USD moved from above 0.6240 to 0.6212 post Nov CPI data. The data showed headline CPI pressures ticking up in y/y terms, but the RBA's preferred inflation measure, the trimmed mean, eased back to 3.2% y/y from 3.5% (closer to the top end of the RBA's target band). An RBA cut is more than fully priced for the April meeting and 64% for the February meeting.
  • Follow through downside for the A$ hasn't materialized though, we sit back in the 0.6230/35 region now, little changed for the session. NZD/USD saw some negative spill over from the A$ dip, but likewise has been supported, the pair last near 0.5635.
  • China and Hong Kong equities are down at the lunch time break, off 1.5-1.6%, with sentiment not boosted by details around the expanded consumer trade in appliance/motor vehicle program.
  • US equity futures are up a little over 0.20%, which is perhaps providing some offset. In the US yield space, we have seen little net movement after Tuesday's yield bounce following better than expected data outcomes.
  • USD/JPY has tracked recent ranges, with Tuesday's high above 158.40 holding, while dips sub 158.00 have been supported. EUR/USD is a touch higher, last near 1.0350.
  • Later the Fed’s Waller speaks on the economic outlook and the December FOMC minutes are published. US jobless claims, December ADP employment and November consumer credit as well as November German orders & retail sales and December euro area European Commission survey print.
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Aggregate FX moves are very muted in the first part of Wednesday trade. The USD BBDXY index is little changed versus end Tuesday levels in NY, last near 1307. 

  • AUD/USD moved from above 0.6240 to 0.6212 post Nov CPI data. The data showed headline CPI pressures ticking up in y/y terms, but the RBA's preferred inflation measure, the trimmed mean, eased back to 3.2% y/y from 3.5% (closer to the top end of the RBA's target band). An RBA cut is more than fully priced for the April meeting and 64% for the February meeting.
  • Follow through downside for the A$ hasn't materialized though, we sit back in the 0.6230/35 region now, little changed for the session. NZD/USD saw some negative spill over from the A$ dip, but likewise has been supported, the pair last near 0.5635.
  • China and Hong Kong equities are down at the lunch time break, off 1.5-1.6%, with sentiment not boosted by details around the expanded consumer trade in appliance/motor vehicle program.
  • US equity futures are up a little over 0.20%, which is perhaps providing some offset. In the US yield space, we have seen little net movement after Tuesday's yield bounce following better than expected data outcomes.
  • USD/JPY has tracked recent ranges, with Tuesday's high above 158.40 holding, while dips sub 158.00 have been supported. EUR/USD is a touch higher, last near 1.0350.
  • Later the Fed’s Waller speaks on the economic outlook and the December FOMC minutes are published. US jobless claims, December ADP employment and November consumer credit as well as November German orders & retail sales and December euro area European Commission survey print.