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Notable ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls figure: ADP private payrolls under the new methodology released today have been below NFP payroll growth by an average of 97k over the past 12 months (below it in 8 of those 12 months).
- ADPs came out at +132k for August; the current estimate for private payrolls change Friday is +300k.
- So, the "historical" record in this new ADP series points to a slightly weak payrolls figure (public sector job gains notwithstanding), but it's still far too early to tell how well the new methodology will match up in real-time to overall nonfarms.
Source: BBG, ADP
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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