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ADP Significantly Stronger Than Expected

  • ADP employment growth was significantly higher than expected in June at 497k (cons 225k) after a marginally downward revised 267k (initial 278k). It’s the highest ADP print since Feb’22.
  • Whilst the recent history hasn’t provided a consistent directional indication for private payrolls (ADP an average +2k higher in prior three months but -48k in three months before that), the magnitude of the beat will clearly lift expectations for tomorrow’s payrolls report – current consensus 200k for private.
  • Jobs growth on the other hand eased further in Y/Y terms, again with greater moderation in job changers (11.2% Y/Y from 12.1% vs peak of 16.4% in Jun’22). The moderation in job stayers median pay growth is much shallower, at 6.4% from 6.6% in May, peak of 7.8% in Sep’22.

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