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US DATA: ADP Surprisingly Firm After Extensive Annual Revisions

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • ADP employment was stronger than expected in January at 183k (cons 150k) along with a solidly upward revised 176k (initial 122k) in Dec.
  • This upward revision was just a small part of far-ranging revisions, with ADP employment growth now seen to have averaged 200k in Q4 vs a previously thought 151k.
  • These upward revisions help reduce what was a particularly large undershoot of private payrolls in December, to -47k from -101k at the time.
  • Payrolls data are still of course due to extensive revisions on Friday, but in the latest vintages of data, ADP has had a particularly mixed few months as an indicator for private payrolls, undershooting by -47k in Dec having overshot by 22k in Nov and a huge 212k in Oct.
  • From the press release: "We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market. Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production."
  • Revisions: “The January 2025 report reflects the scheduled annual revision of the ADP National Employment Report. The data series has been reweighted to match annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) benchmark data through March 2024. In addition, this revision encompasses an improved labeling model, including updated geographical and industry classifications.”
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  • ADP employment was stronger than expected in January at 183k (cons 150k) along with a solidly upward revised 176k (initial 122k) in Dec.
  • This upward revision was just a small part of far-ranging revisions, with ADP employment growth now seen to have averaged 200k in Q4 vs a previously thought 151k.
  • These upward revisions help reduce what was a particularly large undershoot of private payrolls in December, to -47k from -101k at the time.
  • Payrolls data are still of course due to extensive revisions on Friday, but in the latest vintages of data, ADP has had a particularly mixed few months as an indicator for private payrolls, undershooting by -47k in Dec having overshot by 22k in Nov and a huge 212k in Oct.
  • From the press release: "We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market. Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production."
  • Revisions: “The January 2025 report reflects the scheduled annual revision of the ADP National Employment Report. The data series has been reweighted to match annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) benchmark data through March 2024. In addition, this revision encompasses an improved labeling model, including updated geographical and industry classifications.”
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