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Advance Q3 GDP Readings Miss Expectations

CZECHIA
  • Advance data suggested that Czechia's economy shrank 0.6% Y/Y in Q3, which was deeper than the expected 0.3% contraction. On a quarterly basis, GDP shrank 0.3% Q/Q, defying consensus call for a flat reading. The central bank's baseline forecast assumed GDP growth of 0.25% Y/Y in the three months through end-September, albeit the projection is slightly outdated, with a new one coming later this week.
  • The data came out ahead of this Thursday's rate review, with the CNB seen on a knife-edge when it comes to the decision on whether to start the rate-cutting cycle. The market is pricing a 25bp rate reduction and consensus is also narrowly leaning that way, albeit it is a very close call, as 11 economists polled by Bloomberg have pencilled in a cut and 10 expect an on-hold decision.
  • Lidovky reports that intra-coalition negotiations on the pension reform involving a change in the way the retirement age is calculated are hitting snags, with the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs still working on the details. The Ministry missed the self-imposed October deadline and is now looking to present the reform by the year-end.
  • The main opposition ANO movement unveiled lower house Deputy Speaker Klara Dostalova as its leading candidate in next year's European election and said that preventing further increases in electricity prices will be their main policy priority in the coming period.

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