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ADXY Back To Fresh Lows From Early 2000s

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly higher. Note the J.P. Morgan ADXY index is sub 96.00, fresh lows back to the early 2000s. Weaker equities, coupled with a continued move higher in US and regional yields, has kept the USD in the driver's seat. Next week the focus will be on whether China Q3 GDP & September activity figures get released. Singapore CPI is also due.

  • USD/CNH has spent much of the day on the front foot, this afternoon edging above 7.2650. Onshore spot also rebounded higher, but is yet to break above 7.2500. The CNY fixing has leaned against depreciation pressures more heavily this week. Onshore spot is also edging back closer to the top end of the daily trading band (+2% above the fixing).
  • 1 month USD/KRW is back close to 1439, +0.60% for the session. Trade figures, for the first 20-days of October, showed a further loss in export growth momentum. The trade deficit was also slightly wider. Be mindful of verbal intervention on moves towards the 1445/50 region.
  • Taiwan equities remain a laggard, weighed by weaker US tech futures. USD/TWD spot is close to 32.20, +0.20/0.25% higher on yesterday's levels.
  • Spot USD/IDR has inched higher, in tandem with its regional peers. The spot rate last +41 figs at IDR15,614. A break above Apr 16, 2020 high of IDR15,754 would bring the IDR16,000 figure into view. Gains have been limited in the wake of yesterday's monetary policy decision from Bank Indonesia, but the rupiah remains the worst performer in the Asia EM basket on a weekly basis.
  • PHP has outperformed, with USD/PHP sitting at 58.93 currently. There seems to be growing conviction that the BSP has drawn a line in the sand at 59.000, possibly to prevent USD/PHP from challenging the psychologically significant round figure above.
  • Spot USD/THB has crept higher and last trades +0.20 at 38.355, with the baht pressured by risk aversion & broader USD gains. A clearance of yesterday's high of THB.38.465 would shift focus to the round figure of THB40.000. The BoT will release its weekly update on foreign reserves today. In the week through Oct 7, reserves printed at $199.8bn, staying near the lowest level since Nov 2017. The central bank attributed the recent drop to the revaluation in non-dollar assets in relation to the appreciating greenback.

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