Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ASIA FX
USD/Asia pairs are higher today, with Asian FX underperforming the steady to slightly weaker USD trend evident in the majors. USD/CNH has continued to track higher, breaching the 6.9400 level, before selling interest emerged. Regional equities are mostly on the back foot. The J.P. Morgan ADXY index is close to its simple 200-day MA, see the chart below. The data calendar is quiet in the first part of next week, Indian Q4 GDP prints on Tuesday, then China PMIs are due on Wednesday.
- USD/CNH has kicked higher after breaking its simple 200-day MA (6.9091). The pair touched a higher of 6.9450, but we now sit slightly lower at 6.9380/85. There is no push back from the CNY fixing bias to the weaker yuan trend. Onshore equities continue to correct, the CSI 300 down another 1.00%, while northbound stock outflows are also evident. US-China tensions are likely weighing on China related asset sentiment.
- 1 month USD/KRW is back above 1300, although hasn't made fresh highs. USD/JPY supported on dips, coupled with higher USD/CNH levels, has likely weighed on won sentiment today. USD/TWD is also higher, last near 30.48, with KRW and TWD hurt by weaker local equities as well.
- The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is marginally firmer today, the measure dipped yesterday after softer than expected Jan CPI. NEER currently sits around ~0.6% below the top of the trading band. USD/SGD is little changed today, last printing at $1.3420/30. The close above $1.34 opens the 200-Day EMA at $1.3636 for Bulls. Downside support comes in at 2023 lows ($1.3098). IP figures remained around recent levels in terms of y/y momentum, -2.7%, but the m/m was better than expected.
- USD/THB continues to track higher. The pair up a further 0.40% so far today, around the 34.80 level, with baht erasing its YTD gains in recent sessions. The 200-day EMA is not too far above current levels (34.85), beyond that rests the 35.00 figure level. Broader USD sentiment has clearly turned around, although the THB NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) has lost 3.7% from late Jan highs, but remains comfortably above July 2022 lows. Onshore equities continue to weaken, down a further 0.80% so far today, with the SET index also eroding YTD gains. Offshore investors have sold nearly $1bn of local equities in Feb to date, with nearly half the outflows coming in the past week.
Fig 1: ADXY Approaching 200-Day MA
Source: J.P. Morgan/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok