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AfD On Course For Second State Election Win In Brandenburg

GERMANY
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In the wake of the state elections held in Saxony and Thuringia on 1 September, political attention in Germany now turns to another eastern state - Brandenburg - which holds its state election on 22 September.

  • The strong performances of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and far-left social conservative Sara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) sent something of a shockwave through the German political system. The AfD topped the polls in Thuringia, the first time a far-right party has won a state election in Germany since 1945, while the combined vote share for AfD and BSW came to 48.6% in Thuringia and 42.4% in Saxony.
  • Opinion polling shows that the AfD also looks on course to come in first place in Brandenburg, which surrounds the capital, Berlin. Unlike in Thuringia and Saxony, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) retain a sizeable amount of support in the west of the state. However, the environmentalist Greens and progressive left-wing Die Linke could well fall below the 5% threshold and lose their seats.
  • There had been hopes among moderate parties that the prospect of strong results for extreme parties could spur backers of the SPD, Greens, and centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) into turning out. However, this did not materialise in the 1 Sep elections, and polling would indicate that it is not the case in Brandenburg either.

Chart 1. Brandenburg State Election Opinion Polling, % and 4-Poll Moving Average

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In the wake of the state elections held in Saxony and Thuringia on 1 September, political attention in Germany now turns to another eastern state - Brandenburg - which holds its state election on 22 September.

  • The strong performances of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and far-left social conservative Sara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) sent something of a shockwave through the German political system. The AfD topped the polls in Thuringia, the first time a far-right party has won a state election in Germany since 1945, while the combined vote share for AfD and BSW came to 48.6% in Thuringia and 42.4% in Saxony.
  • Opinion polling shows that the AfD also looks on course to come in first place in Brandenburg, which surrounds the capital, Berlin. Unlike in Thuringia and Saxony, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) retain a sizeable amount of support in the west of the state. However, the environmentalist Greens and progressive left-wing Die Linke could well fall below the 5% threshold and lose their seats.
  • There had been hopes among moderate parties that the prospect of strong results for extreme parties could spur backers of the SPD, Greens, and centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) into turning out. However, this did not materialise in the 1 Sep elections, and polling would indicate that it is not the case in Brandenburg either.

Chart 1. Brandenburg State Election Opinion Polling, % and 4-Poll Moving Average

Keep reading...Show less