Free Trial

AHE and Hours Worked Provide Softer Side Of Payrolls Report

US DATA
  • AHE growth underwhelmed considering the backdrop of the surprise dip in the u/e rate, rising 0.27% M/M in March (cons 0.3).
  • Revisions broadly offset each other for Jan (0.03pps higher) and Feb (0.03pps lower) but they left a path with a more pronounced slowdown, moderating for three consecutive months from 0.43% back in Nov to 0.21% M/M before this latest push higher to 0.27% M/M.
  • The non-supervisory measure again provided a stronger underlying trend though, at 0.32% M/M after a downward revised but still strong 0.42% in Feb (prior 0.46%).
  • Perhaps more notably, average weekly hours worked added a dovish tilt, surprisingly dipping a tenth to 34.4 for joint lows of this part of the cycle and firmly back in the pre-pandemic range. Combined with the surprisingly trimming of job openings in February’s JOLTS data and there are signs of labour demand cooling but still a long way from a sharp correction.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.