Free Trial

Ahead of the ECB on Thursday, CIBC write...>

ECB VIEW
ECB VIEW: Ahead of the ECB on Thursday, CIBC write their playbook for a few
different scenarios:
Base Case: A 10bps cut to the deposit rate, a change to forward guidance to
remove calendar based condition and no QE
- Long EUR/USD
- Short USD/CHF
- Short USD versus the Scandies
The "They Did WHAT?!?" Scenario: Greater than 10bps cut, dovish change to
forward guidance and QE program announced (EUR30-40bln for 12 months)
- Short EUR/USD and Long USD/CHF
- Short SX7E index
The 'Bazooka': A 10bps cut to the deposit rate, dovish change to forward
guidance and large QE program (greater than EUR 40bln for 12 months)
- Long XAU/EUR (or long Gold, using the EUR as the funder)

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.