*** Ahead of today's June FOMC minutes..........>

FED: *** Ahead of today's June FOMC minutes release, here is an interesting

excerpt from a Fed Reserve Board of Governor economic research on Tsy yield

curves, flattening to point of inversion and historical probability/indicator of

recession: "A more subtle suggestion from our analysis is that the

predictability of recessions by the near-term spread would appear to be a case

of "reverse causality." That is, the near-term spread may only predict

recessions because it impounds expectations that market participants have

already formed." Hopefully will glean more from the minutes today. While the Fed

will be keeping an eye on, it appears to underscore the Fed downplaying slowing

pace of hikes in the event of yield curve inversion.