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Alfa Laval OCF Recovers and Dividend Beats Despite EBITA Miss

CAPITAL GOODS


  • Q4 net sales of SEK 17.8bn, + 8% YoY and beating the consensus SEK 17.5bn (largely driven by a beat in marine net sales). Q4 adj-EBITA was SEK 2.8bn, +12% YoY but missing consensus of SEK 2.9bn. DPS of SEK 7.5, beating consensus of SEK 7.1.
  • OCF increased by 134% YoY to SEK 3.9bn largely due to previous figures being burdened by build-ups in inventory and work-in-progress. EBITDA leverage down to 0.85x from 1.47x at FY22.
  • FY24 CapEx Guidance reduced to ~ SEK 2bn though they “expect demand in the first quarter to be somewhat lower compared to the fourth quarter.”
  • Alfa Laval expects Q1 demand to be somewhat lower than Q4 and has reduced its 2024 capex guidance to approximately SEK 2bn (FY23 CapEx was SEK 2.4bn).
  • Two of their EUR bonds are streaming prices with OAS widening by ~2-3bps.
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