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All the attention turns towards Fed Powell

BONDS
  • EGBs and Bund trade within yesterday's range this morning, although futures have pared some of yesterday's afternoon gains.
  • Small support in Bund move up to 150.32.
  • BTP/Bund spread has consolidated some of the tightening seen this week, and is now 8bps wider and testing the August high at 230.92bps, now at 229.9bps at the time of typing.
  • Gilt remains in a fairly tight range (111.16/111.54, low/high), and spread continues to dominate, ahead of Monday UK Bank holiday.
  • Roll pace for Gilt runs at 78% completion, first notice is on the 30th August.
  • Gilt/Bund spread is again tighter this morning, by 3bps, after the spread failed to break 133.16bps the March and 2022 high this week.
  • The spread is now at 126.6bps.
  • US Treasuries trade mostly close to inline with Europe, and the Tnote/Bund spread is still finding some support at 170.83bps, the August low, now 1.4bp wider at 172.4.
  • US Yields: 2y +0.6bp , 5y +4.3bp , 10y +5.4bp , 30y +4.7bp.
  • Curves: 2/10s: steeper (+4.4bp); 10/30s: flatter (-0.7bp).
  • Looking ahead, US Wholesale Inventories, PCE Core deflator, and Final reading for Michigan are the notable Data.
  • All attention is of course on Powell at 15.00BST/10.00ET.
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