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An Eventual Mild Bull Flattening With Solid Docket Ahead

US TSYS
  • A mixed overnight session for Treasuries, firming a touch through Asia hours with Sino-U.S. worries back at the fore on confirmation that the U.S. & Taiwan will enter formal trade discussions before cheapening as Europe came in. European hours have included an expected 50bp hike from the Norges Bank with “most likely” a further increase in Sept and the ECB’s Schnabel suggesting she favours another large rate hike in Sept.
  • Xi saying China will persist with opening up its economy drew a brief further cheapening below quickly retracing, with the aforementioned Sino-U.S. tension potentially behind Tsy outperformance to European sovereigns on the day.
  • 2YY -0.8bps at 3.277%, 5YY -0.7bps at 3.044%, 10YY -1.5bps at 2.882%, 30YY -1.7bps at 3.135%, leaving 2s10s keeping to the week’s rough range of -40 to -45bps.
  • TYU2 sits almost unchanged at 118-25+ on modestly above soft seasonal volumes at the low end of yesterday’s range. The outlook is seen as bearish with yesterday’s low of 118-17+ forming initial support after which it would eye 118-05 (50% retrace of Jun 14 – Aug 2 bull cycle).
  • Fedspeak: George (’22 voter) at 1320ET before Kashkari (’23) at 1345ET
  • Data: A variety of second tier but still important data releases with initial claims for a payrolls reference week, activity surveys after the huge miss in August Empire and existing home sales with another large decline of circa 5% M/M expected.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $8B 30Y TIPS auction re-open (912810TE8) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $55B 4W, $50B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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