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Analyst Forecasts For April CPI Inflation, Due Later

COLOMBIA
  • April CPI inflation data are due at 0000BST(1900ET), with the market expecting headline prices to rise by 0.59% m/m, which would bring the annual rate down to 7.16% y/y, from 7.36%. At the same time, core prices are expected to rise by 0.54% m/m (vs. +0.69% prior), with the annual rate moderating to 8.30% y/y, from 8.76%.
  • JP Morgan forecast +0.58% m/m for headline CPI, driving the last 12-month change to 7.15% y/y. Of note, JPM have revised the monthly projection 4bp higher on increased pressure from food prices. Ex-food CPI is projected at 0.50%m/m. In terms of monetary policy, JPM expect BanRep to keep the normalisation pace steady at 50bp at the next meeting in late June.
  • Meanwhile, Itaú expect inflation to rise by 0.58% m/m, boosted by housing and utilities (mainly rent and energy prices), food prices, hotels and restaurants and transportation, with the latter boosted by fuel and diesel prices hikes. In annual terms, headline inflation would fall to 7.15% from 7.36% in March. Itaú forecast core CPI at 0.5% m/m and 8.23% y/y.
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