Free Trial

Analyst Responses Imply Upside Risk To Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • The median analyst response to the Bloomberg survey sees core CPI at 0.3% but the average is 0.33% M/M, indicating a risk of a higher outturn.
  • Looking at releases in the year to date [see chart], a skew towards a higher print has more often than not preceded a beat of the survey, whilst equally a skew lower has seen a miss, notably so in last month’s October report.
  • This quick rule is clearly not completely reliable and was comprehensively wrong when July core CPI missed by 0.2pps after large declines in travel-related components, but at the margin would indicate a chance of a beat this month.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.