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Analyst Responses Imply Upside Risk To Core CPI

  • The median analyst response to the Bloomberg survey sees core CPI at 0.3% but the average is 0.33% M/M, indicating a risk of a higher outturn.
  • Looking at releases in the year to date [see chart], a skew towards a higher print has more often than not preceded a beat of the survey, whilst equally a skew lower has seen a miss, notably so in last month’s October report.
  • This quick rule is clearly not completely reliable and was comprehensively wrong when July core CPI missed by 0.2pps after large declines in travel-related components, but at the margin would indicate a chance of a beat this month.

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