The median analyst response to the Bloomberg survey sees core CPI at 0.3% but the average is 0.33% M/M, indicating a risk of a higher outturn.
Looking at releases in the year to date [see chart], a skew towards a higher print has more often than not preceded a beat of the survey, whilst equally a skew lower has seen a miss, notably so in last month’s October report.
This quick rule is clearly not completely reliable and was comprehensively wrong when July core CPI missed by 0.2pps after large declines in travel-related components, but at the margin would indicate a chance of a beat this month.

FOMC Calendar Market News Homepage Bullet Markets Fixed Income News Foreign Exchange News

Chris Harrison

FOMC Calendar Market News Homepage Bullet Markets Fixed Income News Foreign Exchange News

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Analyst Responses Imply Upside Risk To Core CPI