MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 2

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MNI China Press Digest July 2: PBOC, FDI, Land Revenue

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Analyst Takes On Latest Monthly GDP

CANADA
  • BMO: The economy has been holding up relatively well overall heading into end-2022, largely because the service sector is now carrying the weight. But the real question will be how things shake out during 1H23, when aggressive BoC hikes start to more fully work their way through the system.
  • CIBC: Growth during Q4 as a whole appears to be tracking above the BoC’s MPR forecasts and domestic demand (particularly consumer services) may have improved relative to Q3. However, the industry data can sometimes diverge from the final expenditure figures, and we suspect that the employment data for Dec and the BoC's own business and consumer surveys will be more important in determining if policymakers raise interest rates any further. We maintain our view for a hold in Jan.
  • RBC: Growth is tracking for Q4 running above our and the BoC's estimate for a 0.5% annualized increase. Still, growth has been slowing on balance, and the central bank looks increasingly likely to be nearing a pause in its current hiking cycle. Inflation readings should continue to dial lower but not fast enough for the central bank to ease off the monetary policy brakes quickly. We expect the overnight rate will stay at currently restrictive level throughout 2023.
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