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Analyst Takes On Monthly GDP Report

CANADA
  • BMO: The overriding message is that the economy is just managing to keep its head above water, which squarely fits with the BoC's view.
  • CIBC: While the Canadian economy hasn't cooled as quickly as we (and others) previously expected given the rapid rise in interest rates, there are growing signs of fragility. The recovery in many services has slowed even with activity still well below pre-pandemic levels
  • RBC: There were early signs of cracks in the consumer spending backdrop with retail and accommodation & food service sales declining in Nov. We continue to expect household spending to slow going forward as debt servicing costs rise.
  • Scotia: Canada’s economy remains in a deep state of excess demand that may be very tentatively shifting toward opening up some slack. Treat this possibility with a high degree of care as consensus has felt this way over prior quarters and thus far Canada’s economy has consistently outperformed such expectations.
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