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Analyst Views

  • In case you missed it over the weekend, we published our BOE Review, which included an overview of over 20 sellside views.
  • 67% of analysts (14/21) expect the 4.25% rate to be the terminal rate – albeit a number of these see the May decision as data-dependant and finely balanced and note that the bar to a further 25bp hike is low.
  • JP Morgan and Rabobank both look for two further 25bp hikes in their base case to a terminal rate of 4.75%.
  • Barclays, Danske Bank and TD Securities have joined Credit Suisse and Société Générale in looking for a final 25bp hike in May.
  • Berenberg and UBS both still expect cuts to begin in Q4-23 – all other analysts forecast no cuts before 2024, at the earliest.

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