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Analyst Views 5/5 (Hakwish to Dovish)

BOE
Citi25bp hikes in Sep22 and Nov22 to 2.25% before on hold; debate to be zero or 25bp hikes. 25bp cuts in Aug23, Nov23 and Mar24 to 1.50%.
Morgan StanleyCoin toss decision in Sep22, but stick to 25bp hike. Look for final Nov22 hike to 2.25% as global CBs pivot. Introduce a 25bp cut in Nov23 back to 2.00%.
Pantheon25bp hikes in Sep22 and Nov22 to 2.25% "when the stance of fiscal policy should be clear." Cut in late 2023 to 2.00% with a "good chance" of a further cut in 2024.
UniCreditPace of hikes 25bp from Sep22 and to stop hiking by the end of this year "when inflation should be showing more convincing signs of peaking and the labor market has softened."
Barclays25bp hike in Sep22; 50bp "also plausible". Think BoE estimates neutral rate at c.1.25%. Disagree Bank would continue hiking and then need to cut when already in recession.
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Citi25bp hikes in Sep22 and Nov22 to 2.25% before on hold; debate to be zero or 25bp hikes. 25bp cuts in Aug23, Nov23 and Mar24 to 1.50%.
Morgan StanleyCoin toss decision in Sep22, but stick to 25bp hike. Look for final Nov22 hike to 2.25% as global CBs pivot. Introduce a 25bp cut in Nov23 back to 2.00%.
Pantheon25bp hikes in Sep22 and Nov22 to 2.25% "when the stance of fiscal policy should be clear." Cut in late 2023 to 2.00% with a "good chance" of a further cut in 2024.
UniCreditPace of hikes 25bp from Sep22 and to stop hiking by the end of this year "when inflation should be showing more convincing signs of peaking and the labor market has softened."
Barclays25bp hike in Sep22; 50bp "also plausible". Think BoE estimates neutral rate at c.1.25%. Disagree Bank would continue hiking and then need to cut when already in recession.