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Analyst Views (Hawkish to Dovish) (4/4)

BOE
UBSPause in Jun22 to see hard data on impact of April inflation spike. 25bp hikes in Aug22 and Sep22. Risk of these being brought forward. Start of gilt sales could be pushed into 2023.
NatWestFinal 25bp hike in Aug22 then on hold through Q1-24 (risk of 2 hikes in H1-23). QT base case: Q4-22 announcement then active sales in start Q1-23 at GBP50bln/year pace.
PantheonFinal 25bp hike in Aug22 (but Jun22 "looks finely balanced"). Greater chance of GDP surprising lower than CPI to the upside. Gilt sales start in Q4-22 at GBP10bln/quarter.
UniCreditOne more hike in this cycle in Aug22.
Daiwa"Extraordinary uncertainty" over the outlook but maintain forecast of final 25bp hike in Aug22 with a 25bp cut in Q4-23. Gilt sales may not start before next year.

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