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Analyst Views - Hawkish to Dovish (1/4)

BOE
Nomura15bp hike Dec21, then 25bp hikes in Feb22, May22, H2-22. BOE inf fcast "close enough to target" to support 1% rate by end-22. Downside risks to fcast of 50bp of hikes in 2023.
Société GénéraleOfficial & survey evidence of labour mkt strength "available in abundance" prompt 15bp Dec21 hike. 25bp hikes in Feb22, May22, Aug22 (but downside risks of final hike to 1.0%)
Morgan StanleySee the Nov pause to allow for winding up of current QE prgramme and to wait for more labour market data. See 15bp Dec21 and 25bp Feb22 hikes to trigger QT from Feb22.
BarclaysWill be "enough post-furlough labour market data" for a 15bp Dec21 hike. Continue to expect 25bp hikes in Feb22 and May22 but "the bank could hike less or more gradually."
RBCContinue to expect first hike Dec21 but the "key question" is whether Bank Rate gets to 0.50% by Feb22 to trigger QT.

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