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Analyst Views: Hawkish to Dovish (1/5)

BOE
Goldman Sachs50bp hike with unanimous vote. Then further 50bp hike in Sep22 followed by 25bp in Nov22 and Dec22 to 2.75%. Gilt sales of GBP15bln/Q start Nov22 (risk of Sep22).
Deutsche50bp hike with 7-2 vote in Aug22, further 50bp in Sep22 then 25bp in Nov22 to terminal 2.50%. Risk of further tightening if fiscal support needed to offset injection of demand.
Societe Generale50bp hike with unanimous vote, further 50bp in Sep22 then 25bp in Nov22 to peak of 2.50%. Expect 6-month programme to sell GBP60bln gilts.
Berenberg50bp hikes in Aug22 and Sep22 with Bailey voting for the larger hikes. Further 25bp in Nov22 to 2.50%. Then 50bp of cuts in H2-23 and further 25bp cuts in H1-24 to 1.50%.

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