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Analyst Views On April CPI

ARGENTINA
  • JP Morgan note that the deceleration in April CPI inflation was widespread once again, led by food CPI. Underlying CPI, both core and ex food core, printed in the single digits range for the second month running. Of note, the seasonal adjustment shows ex. food core momentum decelerating strongly to 198.8% in annualised terms, from 396.1% the previous month.
  • Given the postponement of regulated price adjustments scheduled for May, and high frequency data showing a further slowdown in food CPI, JPM see May headline inflation close to 5% m/m. In H2, inflation would average 5.5% m/m assuming partial utilities’ tariff adjustments resume and the government starts relaxing capital controls by Q3 in a gradual manner. Against this backdrop, JPM see year-end inflation at 155% y/y.
  • BBVA highlight that monthly inflation had not reached values below 10% since October 2023 and monthly core inflation was the lowest in 15 months. They note that it is the key variable to monitor to measure the pace of disinflation in a context of correction of tariffs and other regulated prices. They expect monthly inflation to settle at 6% in the coming months.
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