MNI: Fed's Musalem Sees Inflation Risks Skewed To Upside

MNI: Fed's Bostic Sees 2 Cuts This Year But High Uncertainty

MNI BRIEF: Geoeconomic Fragmentation Now Reality - Makhlouf

MNI BRIEF: All Members Agree On Inflation Improvement -Banxico

MNI BRIEF: U.S. Should Consult Before Tariffs Imposed - MOFCOM

MNI PBOC WATCH: Easing Paused Ahead Of Two Sessions

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: IT Piu; EU, BE Due Monday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +4.63M TO 432.5M FEB 14 WK

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -196 BCF TO 2,101 BCF FEB 14 WK

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

CHILE: Analyst Views On Jan CPI Inflation, Consistent With Continued Pause

CHILE
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Goldman Sachs says that inflation printed above their forecast, driven in part by higher prices in the other non-core category. They also note that this was the final large increase scheduled for electricity tariffs. If electricity tariffs are removed, inflation is tracking visibly lower, albeit still above target, at 3.7%. They expect sequential inflation readings to remain somewhat firm in Q1 but anticipate a fast decline of annual inflation in H2, benefitting from the large increases to electricity tariffs that took place in 2024.
  • Itaú sees inflation risks tilted to the upside amid indexation pressures and feedback from business surveys that signal a preference to increase the rate of FX passthrough to final prices. They expect short-term inflation estimates to be revised further to the upside and consolidate the view of a prolonged pause by the BCCh. The level of persistence of the recent CLP rally may alleviate the rise of medium-term inflation expectations and cool market talk of possible rate hikes this year.
  • JP Morgan notes that electricity hikes explained 33bp of the monthly CPI variation. Both headline and core sequential CPI momentum started to ease, with the last 3m annualised pace running at 4.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Their base case remains that the central bank will hold the policy rate stable in March.
213 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Goldman Sachs says that inflation printed above their forecast, driven in part by higher prices in the other non-core category. They also note that this was the final large increase scheduled for electricity tariffs. If electricity tariffs are removed, inflation is tracking visibly lower, albeit still above target, at 3.7%. They expect sequential inflation readings to remain somewhat firm in Q1 but anticipate a fast decline of annual inflation in H2, benefitting from the large increases to electricity tariffs that took place in 2024.
  • Itaú sees inflation risks tilted to the upside amid indexation pressures and feedback from business surveys that signal a preference to increase the rate of FX passthrough to final prices. They expect short-term inflation estimates to be revised further to the upside and consolidate the view of a prolonged pause by the BCCh. The level of persistence of the recent CLP rally may alleviate the rise of medium-term inflation expectations and cool market talk of possible rate hikes this year.
  • JP Morgan notes that electricity hikes explained 33bp of the monthly CPI variation. Both headline and core sequential CPI momentum started to ease, with the last 3m annualised pace running at 4.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Their base case remains that the central bank will hold the policy rate stable in March.