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|ING||First hike likely in H2-22 "given the number of headwinds facing the economy this winter". Pencil in Nov22 but Aug22 "growing more likely". Still don't expect second hike until 2023.|
|UniCredit||Expect growth and inflaton to disappoint MPC forecasts which will delay first hike to late 2022/early 2023. But believe MPC "laying the ground" for 15bp hike "as soon as" Feb22.|
|Barclays||"The current macro backdrop does not call for a hike" but "acknowledge that a scenario could transpire whereby the MPC is boxed into a corner and delivers a hike."|
|Pantheon||Base case first hike in "early 2023" as UnE / underemployment rise sharply combine with fiscal consolidation. If little labour market slack post-furlough possible MPC hike in Q1-22.|
|Rabobank||"the UK economy is likely to underperform the central bank's forecast. Even as inflation reaches an uncomfortably high rate" base case remains no hikes in 2021/22.|