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Analyst Views Post-September MPC Meeting - Hikes late 2022 or after (4/4)

BOE
INGFirst hike likely in H2-22 "given the number of headwinds facing the economy this winter". Pencil in Nov22 but Aug22 "growing more likely". Still don't expect second hike until 2023.
UniCreditExpect growth and inflaton to disappoint MPC forecasts which will delay first hike to late 2022/early 2023. But believe MPC "laying the ground" for 15bp hike "as soon as" Feb22.
Barclays"The current macro backdrop does not call for a hike" but "acknowledge that a scenario could transpire whereby the MPC is boxed into a corner and delivers a hike."
PantheonBase case first hike in "early 2023" as UnE / underemployment rise sharply combine with fiscal consolidation. If little labour market slack post-furlough possible MPC hike in Q1-22.
Rabobank"the UK economy is likely to underperform the central bank's forecast. Even as inflation reaches an uncomfortably high rate" base case remains no hikes in 2021/22.
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