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Analysts are unanimous in expecting....>

MEXICAN PESO: Analysts are unanimous in expecting Banxico to keep rates
unchanged Thursday at 8.25%. Risks from stubbornly high inflation (4.41% Y/Y in
April) contrast with flagging growth (prelim data showed contraction in Q1),
suggesting Banxico have little reason to change policy.
-TD Securities see rates unchanged. Inflation expectations are finally showing a
propensity to ease, which could open the door to rate cuts later this year, but
Q1 2020 is seen as the first opportunity to do so. Next few months will be key
see whether inflation expectations pick up as a result in high realised CPI.
-ScotiaBank see rates unchanged, with high food, energy and core inflation are
countered by MXN appreciation, which should keep Banxico on hold.
-Barclays see Banxico on hold due to increasing core inflation which may become
a concern, but tone likely to be hawkish as wage inflation increases also.
-Mizuho see rates unchanged as signalled at the last meeting. Despite risk of
MXN depreciation and sticky inflation, tightening cycle likely over as
inflationary pressure seen as temporary due to lower oil prices and recent MXN
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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