Analysts at BAML argue that there are other...>

BONDS: Analysts at BAML argue that there are other ways to measure rate market

positioning other than by using positioning data. They look at market reactions

to the economic data, pointing that outsized reactions in one direction would

hint at the market's positioning.

- With this approach, they write "Our data shows that rates markets are

increasingly sensitive to negative economic data releases. This is true for EUR

rates and to a lesser extent for USD rates".

- Specifically, they find that "in July, the average price move after a negative

data surprise was over 10 times the move following a positive surprise"

- They surmise that the market is more short Bunds than Treasuries.